This weekend we’ve got a 13-fight card after that long 3-week break. I’m excited to have UFC back and I am prepared to win some cash on Saturday. The card will occur in Lincoln, Nebraska and there are no fighters creating their UFC introduction so it’s always nice when you’re already familiar with the fighters on the card. Because this is a Fight Night card, the DraftKings contests aren’t the best, but there’s still a lot of cash to be won. I will be chasing the large $15k top prize at the $8 GPP as well as the $5 & $10 Qualifiers. Most of my investment will be in money games, mainly H2Hs, but I’ll be taking multiple shots at these huge prizes. Here are a Couple of plays I enjoy this week as well as my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of this week — Stack (James Vick $8,600 AND Justin Gaethje $7,600)
This is the way I will be starting my money lineup. I will put in Vick and Gaethje then figure out the rest from there. Any battle Gaethje is in is full of action and his three UFC fights have been Fight Of The Year type fights. Those types of fights are fantastic for DraftKings. Notably cash games since we can lock at a win and receive all the points at the very best fight on the card. Normally 4 wins will get the job done in cash games and we will get over 100 points with this fight. So, with that triumph locked in, we simply have to find 3 others we feel good about.
GPP play of the week — Bryan Barberena ($9,500)
It is tough to want to pay $9.5k for a guy like Barberena when you can just pay an additional $200 to get a -1000 favorite in Anders. However, I believe that’s what most people will do and that is what makes Barberena a fantastic GPP play. I think we will get him at a somewhat lower ownership as a consequence of his massive salary, and he’s got a very good chance at obtaining a 1st round triumph. If he can find a 1st round KO then he’ll have 100 points so he’ll pay off that high salary. If you believe Ellenberger is completely faded, I believe that you should find some Barberena on your lineups. His ITD line is -170 and Ellenberger looks like he’s a shell of his old self. I think Barberena does pick up an end inside this fight so I will throw him in some GPPs and hope he is beneath owned.
Underdog play of this week — Andre Fili ($7,500)
This is just the effortless worth play of this week. Currently, Fili is the betting favorite at -115 over Michael Johnson at +105. However, MJ is $8.7k on DraftKings and Fili is just $7.5k. I love taking that worth when it’s available so I think he’s in play in most formats. He’ll be popular in tournaments together with the value we are getting on himbut I am ready to consume that chalk and I don’t want to get burnt by entirely fading that worth. I really do think this is the toughest fight on the card to call, but if Fili keeps with his wrestling I think he will have a good shot at winning this fight. If the fight stays standing for 15-minutes, I’d prefer MJ but not by a lot. At $7.5k we don’t need a massive score from Fili so any win will likely do just fine. I am not going to pass up on this value and I think he is the simple underdog of this week on DK.
Fade of the week — Drew Dober ($8,900)
This could just be my own personal prejudice but I am not going to possess Drew Dober in some of my main ~20 GPP lineups. Nor will I have him in my money lineup. Dober has only went for takedowns in 1 of his UFC fights so he is mainly just seeking to strike. I believe this is going to be a remarkable battle also and I think that it will be closer than the chances indicate. At $8.9k I believe we will require a finish from him to wind up on the winning GPP lineup and that I really don’t see that happening. Should you believe Dober can get a KO, then you ought to be playing him. I will just be paying up elsewhere since I’m not sure he can get that complete and I would not be shocked if he even lost the struggle. I will say that I never look to utilize Dober at DraftKings, so I could get burnt again here but I will stick with my Dober fade and he’ll be my fade of the week for UFC Lincoln.
If you would like my own full-card DraftKings breakdown with analysis on each struggle, my personal approaches & suggestions, and my pick outlook for every fight then it is possible to discover that beneath the Premium Picks tab on MMAoddsbreaker should you click on Upcoming Picks. Or you can just go to this link below:
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